A double median income Sydney couple earns about $195,074. The median Sydney house demands about $304,024, which is 1.56 times what they bring in. Only Hobart and Darwin clear the house test comfortably. Perth scrapes past by about $1,538, a margin smaller than the wage survey's own error band, and it tips under at the latest published rate. And on one median full time wage, no capital is buyable at all,8 out of 8 fail.
Three tests, one couple
We ran the same serviceability test three ways, using each city's own wages rather than a national figure. "Buyable" means loan repayments stay at or under the standard 30% of gross income mortgage stress line, with a 20% deposit, a 30 year loan, and the latest published average new owner occupier variable rate of 5.90%.
- One median full time wage vs the median home: fails in all 8 capitals. Even in Darwin, the cheapest capital, a single median wage falls short of the $117,412 the median dwelling demands.
- Two median full time wages vs the median home (houses and units blended): clears in 5 of 8. Sydney and Brisbane clearly fail on two wages, and Adelaide falls about $3,910 short, close enough to the survey error band to call line ball.
- Two median full time wages vs the median house: fails in 5 of 8. This is the test that matters for the couple everyone pictures, two earners planning a family who want space. Hobart and Darwin pass comfortably. Perth passes by about $1,538, line ball, and fails once the latest rate rise is applied, which takes it to 6 of 8.
- Two median full time wages vs the median unit: clears in all 8 capitals. The wall is specifically a house wall.
The house gap, city by city
The black dot is what the couple earns. The coloured dot is what the median house in their city demands. Red means the house demands more than they earn.
Incomes: two times the ABS median full time wage for each greater capital city (August 2025, indexed by published wage growth of +1.6% to March 2026). House values: Cotality, 31 March 2026. Perth passes by about $1,538, inside the earnings survey's error band, and tips under at the latest published rate, so call Perth line ball either way.
The full table
| Capital | Couple earns | Median unit needs | Median home needs | Median house needs | House verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney | $195,074 | $173,052 | $245,869 | $304,024 | short $109k |
| Brisbane | $184,930 | $164,284 | $209,003 | $229,229 | short $44k |
| Adelaide | $173,940 | $129,958 | $177,850 | $189,601 | short $16k |
| Melbourne | $179,752 | $122,248 | $157,205 | $186,554 | short $7k |
| Canberra | $192,116 | $113,636 | $169,457 | $198,968 | short $7k |
| Perth | $203,212 | $141,741 | $193,163 | $201,674 | clears it |
| Hobart | $179,646 | $108,269 | $140,026 | $150,052 | clears it |
| Darwin | $184,930 | $85,629 | $117,412 | $138,943 | clears it |
Green means the couple's income covers it at the 30% stress line. "Median home" blends houses and units; "median house" is houses only.
What this actually says
The comfortable story is that anyone priced out just is not earning enough, or should have picked a better career. These numbers say something different. Two people on the exact middle full time wage of their own city, the definition of an ordinary working couple, cannot service the ordinary house in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide or Canberra, and Perth comes down to survey noise and which month's rate you use. The middle of the workforce no longer reaches the middle of the housing market, even at full strength, two incomes, no kids, no breaks. What the couple can still buy everywhere is the median unit. The wall is not a housing wall so much as a house wall: the detached home with space for kids has quietly become a top third of earners product in the big capitals, and the unit is what the middle of the workforce is now priced for.
It also explains what you can see in any auction crowd: the buyers who do get houses in the big capitals are increasingly above median earners, dual professionals, or people carrying family help. The median house has quietly become a top third of earners product. And because our couple is deliberately the best case, every real world complication, one partner part time, a HECS balance, a child, only makes the wall taller.
The part a broker actually changes
None of this means individual buyers are helpless, because serviceability is not assessed the same way everywhere. Lenders treat overtime, bonuses, HECS and living expenses differently, and the same couple can be approved for meaningfully different amounts across lenders. That spread is what a broker shops. It does not move the wall, but it decides which side of it a borderline couple lands on, and it costs you nothing because the lender pays them.
See where you actually stand
Run your own numbers with our borrowing power calculator, then we can match you with a broker who knows which lenders read your income most generously. Free, the lender pays them.
Get matched with a free brokerMethodology and sources
Wages are the ABS median weekly earnings of full time employees for each greater capital city, from the Employee earnings release for August 2025 (published December 2025), read from the release's own Table 2 data cube. We use the median, not the average, so the figure is the middle full time worker, and we use each city's own wage rather than a national one. Incomes are indexed up by the published Wage Price Index growth since the survey month, +1.6% across the two published quarters to March 2026, so wages and home values are compared at the same date. We did not extrapolate any unpublished quarter.
Home values are the Cotality Home Value Index medians as at 31 March 2026, the same primary verified set used in the original Income Wall. The loan test assumes a 20% deposit and a 30 year principal and interest loan at the RBA average rate on new owner occupier variable loans (statistical table F6) for the March 2026 reference month, 5.90%, deliberately matched to the valuation date so prices, incomes and the rate all sit at 31 March 2026 with no mixed vintages. The latest published month (May 2026) is 6.23%; at that rate every figure rises and Perth joins the fails, which is the 6 of 8 quoted above. The 30% of gross income line is the standard mortgage stress convention. It comes from the old 30/40 rule, which was defined for the bottom 40% of incomes, so higher earners can push past it more safely; loosen the line to 35% and Sydney and Brisbane still fail the house test.
Honest caveats, and note they nearly all push one way. Our couple is a deliberately stylised benchmark, two median individual wages doubled, not the ABS measure of actual dual earner household income, because the question here is whether two typical pay packets buy a typical home. The couple is also the best case: both full time, no career breaks, no HECS, no kids, no other debts, so real couples generally face a taller wall than shown. This is a serviceability test only; the 20% deposit is assumed, and saving it is its own wall (about $259,077 on the median Sydney dwelling before stamp duty), while the low deposit schemes that skip it raise the required income further. Banks also assess at the loan rate plus APRA's 3 percentage point buffer, so the income needed for approval is higher than the stress line income shown here. The wage indexing stops at the March quarter, leaving about six weeks of growth uncounted, roughly 0.4%, which slightly overstates the wall but flips nothing. Darwin's wage uses the Northern Territory figure because the ABS publishes no separate Greater Darwin number, and the earnings survey excludes very remote areas. Survey error bands are applied both ways: Perth's house pass and Adelaide's dwelling fail are both inside or near one band, and we call both line ball. And Melbourne's full time median really does sit barely above regional Queensland's in the ABS cube; we left it exactly as published.
- ABS, Employee earnings, August 2025 (median full time weekly earnings by greater capital city, Table 2 cube).
- ABS, Wage Price Index, March quarter 2026 (income indexing).
- Cotality Home Value Index, 31 March 2026 (median dwelling and house values).
- RBA, Lenders' interest rates, statistical table F6 (average new owner occupier variable rate, March 2026 used to match the valuation date; May 2026 shown as the latest published).
Related
- The Income Wall, the original study this one answers: the typical household vs the median home.
- The 5% Deposit Trap, how the deposit scheme is inflating the cheap end of the market.
- Borrowing power calculator, work out your own number.